One of the unfortunate by-products of the “information” age is that content is required, every minute of the day.  Be it 24 hour news stations, sports stations or online publications etc.  There’s no time to think things through.  In-depth research and analysis takes times, and nobody seems to have it today.  We live in a 24 hour news cycle, and the competition is fierce.  The more salacious or provocative a story is, the greater the chance that eyeballs will be directed to it.  Case and point, Alberta.  Our friends and colleagues in that province must feel like they’re under siege.  It’s a constant bombardment of the “sky is falling” narrative. This is not an “it’s not fair” sentiment an eight year old says that when you make them go to bed by 9:30 pm.  The shame is that there does not appear to be much balance in the news with respect to the price of oil, and the impact it will have in Alberta.  There are contrary opinions in this regard, but you have to look for it.

I came across an article which suggests that the price for a barrel of oil has hit bottom.  This is not a lone opinion, and one individual who is suggesting this has a wee bit of knowledge and credibility in this regard.  OPEC’s Secretary-General, Abdulla al-Badri is not only suggesting that the price of oil has hit bottom, but he’s also suggesting that the price of oil could explode in the not too distant future, upwards to $200 per barrel.  What?  You mean fuel at the pumps wasn’t going to be close to free forever?  You mean there are forces at work that might actually make the price for litre of gas more expensive than the price for a litre of bottled water?  That can’t be!  Could OPEC’s Secretary-General be making these claims for self-interest and future profit?  Possibly, but you can’t argue that member states of the oil mob, pardon me, OPEC, don’t have a good handle on oil production levels around the world.  The Secretary-General states the market is already self-correcting.  Rig counts in the U.S. are falling dramatically, and as we’ve read, over and over again, cutbacks in the oil industry are a common occurrence today.   It’s ironic that he’s also suggesting that future oil supplies are being put at risk due to all the cutbacks taking place in the oil industry today.    You mean Alberta might have to put oil production on steroids to meet future demands, resulting in lower unemployment levels and rising home prices in that province?  Can’t be, because if you were to buy into that fairy tale it would mean that you believe that Alberta’s oil industry is cyclical.

The point is no one can say with absolute certainty what the oil market might look like at some exact point and time in the future.  Not unlike the real estate market.   It’s an educated guess and opinion.  It would be nice if we could just get a balanced opinion every once in a while.  And if that’s not possible, at the very least let’s stop throwing gas on this fire. 

Until next time,

Cheers.