Dorothy, Am I in Kansas? I ask because of the headline I came across this week in the Globe “A word to the doomsayers: Bank of Canada sees no housing crash”.  Seriously, where’s Glenda, the good witch of the North and the munchkins? It is pure fantasy to suggest the market is not going to crash.  Who would dare predict the “impending” crash will not result in the total decimation of our economy?  What snake oil salesmen would utter “soft landing” to describe the risk associated with the housing market in this country? Stand up and be counted.  Surely it cannot be someone in the know – unless of course you consider the Bank of Canada Governor, Stephen Poloz, as someone not in the know.

I get it, a mayor smoking crack, partying with escorts and hanging out with gang bangers is far more salacious, and garners eye popping headlines.  Throw in Rogers Communication paying in excess of $5 billion for the exclusive rights to televise Canada’s religious pastime, hockey, and it is understandable why something boring like an okay economy, and housing market not on the precipitous would get such little ink.  Frankly, as far as press coverage regarding the housing industry, this is the best we can hope for.  So when we hear the Governor of The Bank of Canada say, “The housing sector has been stronger than expected but is consistent with updated demographic data and a pulling forward of home purchases in light of favorable financing conditions”.  Excellent – a statement that elicits a yawn.  Or how about, “The Bank continues to expect a soft landing in the housing market”. Almost makes you sleepy.  I guess I could rant against the notion that the Bank of Canada “continues” to predict a soft landing but that would require energy, and I would need to take a nap first. 

As exciting as it is, the press may become bored with our industry, trust me, other words will be found to sell papers; words such as ‘bust’ and ‘bubble’ may be replaced by ‘disinflation’.  According to Investopidia, “Disinflation is commonly used by the Federal Reserve to describe situations of slowing inflation. Instances of disinflation are not uncommon and are viewed as normal during healthy economic times. Although sometimes confused with deflation, disinflation is not considered to be as problematic because prices do not actually drop and disinflation does not usually signal the onset of a slowing economy“.  By all accounts the Bank of Canada will be speaking to this issue going forward.  One way to combat disinflation would be if the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight lending rate.  Alex, I’ll take irony for $200, please.  But let’s not start that again.  Here’s to boredom.

Until next time,

Cheers.