My ritual every morning is to load up on some high octane coffee and surf the web for economic news.  I’ve conditioned myself to expect some negative articles about the mortgage industry, and thanks to Canada’s major newspaper I’m rarely disappointed.  Our industry has taken so many body blows that we’re qualified to perform for the WWE.  Go ahead, suplex me off the top ropes.  It can’t be any worse than the predictions of doom and gloom and specifically that the housing industry is the greatest threat to Canada since confederation. Well, imagine my shock when I read the Globe and Mail’s Report on Business last Friday.  The headline bellowed, “Labour market shakes off winter blues.  Economy creates 82,300 jobs in March, its best month since recession, as unemployment rate falls to 7.2 per cent”.  I double checked, it really was The Globe.

To be clear there wasn’t a single sentence in the article about the importance of the housing and mortgage sector, and the millions of direct and indirect jobs the housing and mortgage sector creates.  Let’s not let facts get in the way of a good story.  At least we’re not being blamed for something.  Maybe I’m becoming cynical but one day I expect to read that global warming, Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the Leafs failure to make the play-off is a result of consumer debt levels in Canada, as well as over inflated home values.  So it’s big news when we can get through a day without being held accountable for… well…  just about anything that goes wrong with the economy.

There was plenty of good news of Friday.  On the employment front some 82,300 jobs were created last month.  The overall unemployment rate fell to 7.2 per cent.  The pace of hiring is clearly picking up and corporate Canada is far more optimistic about our recovery, as well for our neighbours South of the boarder and in Europe.  You know the news is good when the manufacturing sector in Ontario is showing signs of growth.  And you we’re skeptical about the Easter Bunny.   What’s really refreshing about our economic growth is who’s leading the way.  Not the usual suspects.  All hail the new king, Saskatchewan!  You want to live and experience an economic boom…move to Regina.  The unemployment rate there is 3.9 per cent.  Last year Regina’s GDP growth was 6.1 per cent.  The average price of a bungalow is $315,000.  For prosperity go west young man, just not all the way west.  This is a great success story.  Good people deserve good fortune.

 So we should all bask in the glow of this good news for as long as it lasts.  I see the markets have gone into the tank since Friday because of poor job growth numbers in the US.  It seems that economists were expecting much better job numbers in the U.S.; economists have been having a tough go of it recently.  Our actual job growth numbers came in eight times greater than what economists were calling for.  I wonder if this is the same group of economists who called on the Finance Department to change the mortgage rules because the sky was falling.  Here’s a suggestion for them; they should set aside their data and cognitive skills and use something a little more reliable, like tarot cards.

 Until next time.

 Cheers.

How many times have you heard, “it’s just an honour to be nominated“.  What rubbish! If you’re going to be nominated for an award you want the hardware.  A nomination gives you hope and the trophy is the validation.  We all need, and like, the validation.  Those who say it doesn’t matter are being disingenuous.  Even if the sentiment is sincere why wouldn’t you want people’s efforts to be acknowledged?  No one has ever won an award without the hard work of a lot of other people.  When you win an award there’s many finger prints on the trophy.

I take great pride in the fact that CAAMP won the award for Conference of The Year at the Canadian Event Industry Awards.  If you consider all the conferences that are held in Canada each year, the trophy is a significant accomplishment.  Mortgage Forum 2011 was a huge success, and that was confirmed by the survey results and from the numerous comments I received from attendees.   CAAMP took a gamble by changing up the conference, and the changes were well received.  The affiliation with the Art of Sales ensured that the line-up of speakers surpassed all previous conferences.  Tuesday turned into a full day of speaker sessions and it was impressive to see an audience of 2,220.  I remember standing at the back of the hall during one of the speaker sessions and saying to myself, “damn, it actually worked”.  When you make changes you never know how the changes will be received until you go live.  There’s a big divide between concept and execution.  The devil is in the detail, and the CAAMP staff didn’t miss a single detail.  I’ve got proof of that…it’s a nice shiny trophy.

So how does CAAMP top last year’s conference at Mortgage Forum 2012 in Vancouver? It’s not going to be easy but they’re up for the challenge.  They’ll do what they always do, and that means they’ll put on a hell of a show.  CAAMP announced this week that Amanda Lang, CBC’s senior business correspondent, is returning as host of the Mortgage Forum 2012. That’s a fabulous start.  What’s also returning is CAAMP Comedy Fest; we’re in the process right now of signing a contract with the headliner.  I can’t say who it is yet but he’s gut busting funny.  There’s a good chance that you’ve seen him on the TV talk-show circuit or one of his HBO comedy specials.  Many of the speakers for the Tuesday’s portion of the conference have committed, and the theme for Tuesday is the Art of Marketing.  CAAMP will announce the speaker line-up in short order.  Trust me, you’ll be impressed.

It’s disclosure time.  I’m the conference chair for Mortgage Forum 2012, and I have a vested interest in the success of this conference.  Anytime you attach your name or reputation to something you want to make its successful.  So I’ll use every tool at my disposal to ensure success, up to an including, bravado, hype, spin and hyperbole.  Shooting from the lip is easier to do when you know there’s a group of highly killed individuals doing all the heavy lifting behind the scenes to ensure Mortgage Forum 2012 is the best conference we’ve ever had.  Is that spin on my part?  There’s an easy way to find out….see you at Mortgage Forum 2012 in Vancouver.

Until next time

Cheers

Plenty has been written about federal budget which was handed down by the Conservative Government last week.  The reality is that’s only been four days, and yet the fallout, criticism and navel gazing has been rather muted.  The opposition played their role and provided reporters with negative sound bites but by all appearances their collective protests have had little impact.   Why is that?  Is it because they’re ineffective?  Do people not care?  I think the answer is that the Tories managed expectations extraordinarily well, and they provided everyone with a lesson in shaping the narrative. 

For over a year now the PM has stated, in no uncertain terms, that the government had to manage its affairs more efficiently.  Cuts were coming, and the only question was how much?  For over a year the press has been reporting that federal agencies would be required to cut 5% of their operating budget.  Your highest fixed overhead costs are salaries, therefore, job cuts were on the way.  The budget didn’t disappoint, just over 19,000 jobs will be made redundant.  That’s a fair bit of bloodletting but the reaction seems to be, “oh well, it had to be done”.  There’s no doubt that the government tapped into the mood of the electorate, pensions and salaries being too generous, but I am surprised at the lack of reaction.  You have to give the Tories credit for managing this message.  How do you criticize the Tories when they’ve been saying all along that they would do this?  How dare they keep their word?

That being said the Tories may step on a few land mines  over the budget.  Many of the 19,000 plus civil servant jobs to be cut are here in Ontario.  This won’t help an already beleaguered  Ontario economy.  Moreover, the Minister Finance has got into a war of words with his provincial Liberal counterpart, Dwight Duncan.  There’s no love lost between these two, and I guess all is fair in love and war.  But Ontario gave the Conservatives a majority, and Ontario’s vote will be critical to the Tories if they want another majority mandate.   If it wasn’t for the 905 and 416 area code voting for the Tories, we would have another minority government.  There’s little doubt that the Federal and Provincial Liberals will play this up.  It’s happening already.  The Federal Liberal talking points are that this was a Western Canadian based budget, and voters west of Ontario are the benefactors.  Political regional warfare?  You can count it.

Ontario aside, the most common theme in the press was that the budget wasn’t bold enough.  I guess there was an expectation that something draconian was on the way.  Once again, if you get in front of the message and position it effectively, people’s reaction is “it wasn’t really that bad”.  And if you push out certain things, like those under the age of 54 today will now have to wait until they’re 67 years old to receive Old Age Security, people will say I’ll worry about that later.  To deflect some of the criticism over contentious issues the government threw the voters a few bones in this budget.  Like cross boarder shopping.  This is especially helpful for those who lie through their teeth and do not declare everything.  You know who you are.  You’re the person who recites a silent prayer when you’re talking to the customs agent, asking the lord for help and begging your ever merciful god to ensure that you don’t get pulled into that special room and have your bags checked.  Good news!   Effective June 1st – if you’re out of the country between 24 to 48 hours, the exemption increases from $50 to $200.  Trips between two and seven days will see an increase in the tax exemption rise from $400 to $800.  That’s a lot of shoes! 

The highlight of this budget was saying farewell to the penny.  This annoying and useless coin is being taken out of circulation.  I had no idea that the removal of the penny will save the government $11 million annually.  The government is recommending that commercial transactions be rounded off to the nearest five cent interval.  This is a great start but there’s other currency we should take out of circulation, like the $50 and $100 bill.  If no one accepts them, why have them?  Just my two cents worth.

Until next time

Cheers.