“Maintaining the status quo for America is not an option for the global economy, more specifically for Canada.”

Now that Americans have decided to maintain the status quo, high unemployment rates, mounting debt, failing economy and political gridlock, the only question remains – How does the election result impact Canada?  Unfortunately the American Presidential election is not something we can simply dismiss by saying “it’s their business, not ours”; our business is impacted by who and what party America elects.

In Canada, the Harper government did what it was supposed to do, they, stayed out of it and keep their opinions to themselves. Not easy to do considering how intertwined our economies are but we’re the junior partner in this relationship and we have to tread lightly.  It didn’t take long for both Prime Minister Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to issue statements that maintaining the status quo for America is not an option for the global economy, more specifically for Canada.  Here’s how Prime Minister sugarcoated it, “The U.S. has taken many aggressive and ambitious measures on its financial system but we’re now facing the fiscal cliff situation in the American political system in the next couple of months. That’s a big uncertainty.”  Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was more direct, “Of course we’re worried because it would mean — were the entire fiscal cliff risk to come to reality, there would be the effect on U.S. GDP — according to the Americans themselves — would be four to five per cent, which would put the U.S. economy into recession quite quickly, and the Canadian economy would follow shortly thereafter, and would have significant effect on the global economy.  So this is all very serious, and we hope our American colleagues move forward to a resolution promptly.” No ambiguity there.  The stakes are high and it’s hard to imagine that both Democrats and Republicans would be willing to drag their economy, and subsequently ours, into another recession for ideological reasons. Then again I wouldn’t bet on them doing the right thing for the greater good either.

Obama’s reelection probably means that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stays on the job when his term expires.  The Republicans made it very clear they were displeased with Bernanke, and the role that the Treasury plays as it relates to monetary policy.  Bernanke willingly or unwillingly helped Obama out during the campaign with the introduction of QE3, quantitative easing, which helped to boost economic data over the last two months of the campaign.  If Bernanke stays on the job we can expect rates to stay at historical lows until Q3 of 2014.  As I’ve stated before, if you want some indication as to where rates are going in Canada, see what the Fed Chairman is doing.

So, our government is concerned about the fiscal mess the Americans are in, rates are not going up in the mid-term,  no indication if Obama is going to change his position on the Keystone Pipeline, looks like not much has changed.  For our sake let’s hope the President is willing to move to the center and work with Republicans on the “Bush” tax cuts and budget.  The pragmatist in me believes it may happen given the President doesn’t have to pander to his base anymore; he’s never running for office again. The pessimist in me takes over when I consider the President has never made an attempt to move to the center, even after the Democrats lost their majority in Congress in 2010.  That should be worrisome for all of us because we all have skin in this deal.

Until next time,

Cheers.

I have the distinct pleasure to be in New York City over the next couple of days to attend the World Business Forum.  For those of you who have been you know all about the cities vibrancy, pace, attitude and frenetic energy.  Walking the streets you can just feel it. You either keep up or you better step aside. There’s no middle ground when it comes to New York, people love it or hate it.  Put me down in the infatuation column.

New York always finds a way to make the headlines.  Most recently is was the squatters who protested on Wall Street.  Remember them?  They ended up being just another footnote in New York’s long history.  Ah, but today there’s even juicer headlines in the Big Apple.   New York Attorney General filed a lawsuit against J.P. Morgan Chase & Co on Monday for fraud over faulty mortgage-backed securities packaged and sold by the former Bear Stearns.  That’s right; they’re being sued for something allegedly done by Bear Stearns before J.P. Morgan Chase & Co was forced to buy them by the U.S. Government back in 2008.   It was the critical first days of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and the heads of the major banks were summoned to Washington, and they were told in no uncertain terms by then Secretary of the Treasury,   Henry Paulson, that before anyone goes home deals would have to be cut to ensure banking stability.  That’s the Readers Digest version of how J.P. Morgan Chase & Co ended up buying Bear Stearns for $2 USD a share.  It appears now that they ended up buying a whole lot of headaches.  I’m sure the timing of this lawsuit is all coincidental and it has nothing to do with the upcoming U.S. Presidential election.  Sure, the sub-prime mortgage meltdown first came to light in 2008, and the first lawsuit just happened to be filed just prior to the election; a mere coincidence.  It took the Obama administration close to 4 years to create the Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group to investigate the selling and pooling of risky mortgages.  Better late than never, I guess.  Does someone deserve to pay dearly and possibly go to jail for nearly bringing down the global economy? Damn right, and long overdue; but to do it now reeks of politics and not justice; coincidence? As a New Yorker all I want to say is, “coincidence this!”

Until next time,

Cheers.

Leave it to bureaucrats to come up with an acronym which acts as camouflage for the truth.  QE3, Quantitative Easing Part Three, is code for bail-out.  Politicians and bureaucrats are loath to use that term for fear of negative press and political ramifications.  If it looks like a duck, and it quacks like one, it’s a duck!  US Federal Reserve Charmin, Ben Bernanke, announced a couple of weeks ago that the Fed would inject $40 billion a month through purchases of mortgage back securities.  This move by the Fed is viewed as being dramatic in that it is a two pronged approach.  Firstly, there’s no defined time limit and they will not deviate from this policy until they succeed.  What does Fed deem to be success?  Full employment.

Rarely has the Fed exercised its authority and flexed its muscles in a such a manner.  This is a sign that the Fed has little confidence that the Whitehouse, Congress and Senate, will put their bickering and their campaign posturing aside to do what’s right.  This move has put Bernanke into the Republican crosshairs, we can use that reference in Canada because we Canadians wouldn’t take that term literally.  Being so close to the US presidential election, it’s odd that the Fed would make this move now.  Say what you will about Bernanke, he’s injected himself into this political campaign.  I believe his motivation was not political but of necessity.  Managing the economy has not been president Obama’s stronger suite, and the Republicans wouldn’t agree to anything today that Dem’s might suggest.  Fixing the US economy has been put on hold for over a year now because of the length and nature of  presidential campaigning.  Maybe Bernanke was willing to roll the dice because he has nothing to lose.   His tern as Chair expires in 2014.  The Republicans are questioning the need for a Federal Reserve Chairman, and maybe Bernanke has already decided that if asked he will not accept reappointment.  If he does step aside it would be a challenge for whoever replaces him as Chair, given no defined end date for QE3.  It is always easier to make bold decisions about the future knowing that you may not be subject to the consequences of that decision in the future.

The reverberations of QE3 will be felt here in Canada.  Bernanke has stated that the Fed is committed to leaving its target interest rate close to zero until 2015.  A few short months ago the prediction for a rate increase was 2014.  Clearly the Fed believes interest rates are too high in the US to encourage investment and mortgage borrowing.  I am not sure how enamored the Bank of Canada is with this decision.  Up until now the Bank of Canada has been in lock step with the US Fed.  Will they deviate from that?  I highly doubt it.  So, an overnight lending rate increase may have been pushed out for another 12 months in Canada.  That’s good news for consumers, especially for borrowers renewing their mortgages over the next 24 months.  The not so good news is that if you’re a first time home buyer, don’t expect the government to reverse the most recent changes to mortgage rules anytime soon. 

Until next time

Cheers

Most polls show the race for the oval office within the margin of error.  Stunning considering the economic mess our friends to South are in. What’s more staggering is the incumbent may perform the greatest slight of hand trick ever known to man. To be reelected based on today’s economic data would be Houdini like, straight jacket and  all.

For all intent and purposes the presidential election campaign begins post labour day weekend.  Up to this point all the primaries and conventions have been but a mere warm up.  From here on both parties will resort and say to whatever it takes to win.  The nastiness will begin in earnest, and for the president it’s imperative that the focus is diverted away from the facts.  The fact is that unemployment rate in the U.S has been understated for some time now.  The latest numbers has the U.S. unemployment rate at 8.1%, down from 8.2%.  The decrease is a function of people who have stopped looking for work, and no longer count.  Over 60% of people in the U.S. now believe their children will not be better off than they are.  Over 50% of people believe the economy is getting worse.  The latest job figures came in less than what was expected, and yet according to a new poll by Reuters, the president has actually widened his margin since the Democratic Convention.  Me thinks those who were polled must have all lived in Ontario at some point because that is the only explanation I can come up with for the bump in the polls for the president. Why let facts get in the way of a good story?

Like the millions of people outside of the U.S., I really wanted this president to succeed.  He represented change and his election was a signal to the world that race will not play a part in determining the leader of the free world.  But simply being cool is not enough to get elected.  Then again millions of Americans disagree, and to them I say, you deserve what you elect.

Until next time,

Cheers.

“I stand here before you as a lame duck president.  There’s a very good likelihood that I won’t be reelected.  I’m a pragmatist and the numbers don’t lie”

So on Tuesday night I watched President O-Blah-ma give his State of The Union address.  Why?  I’m a political junkie and I’ve always been fascinated by American politics.  In Canada we only really pay attention during an election campaign.  In the US, politics is a blood sport.  The US Presidential election cycle is all day, every day.  If you watch Fox News, CNN or god forbid MSNBC, it’s all about politics, all the time.  Watching the news from the US is like watching The Young and the Restless.  I can change my viewing habits, come back a month later, and nothing’s changed.  There’s comfort in that. (more…)