For some time now, finding positive news about the mortgage industry and the real estate market in general required a Sherpa Guide and a donkey.  “I think I just heard something positive about mortgages…  OOPS, my bad, it’s just Big Foot.”

It hasn’t been easy but over the past couple of weeks there’s been news which leads me to believe the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse may not be on the way.

CAAMP’s Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market in Canada (love those short titles) was released just prior to Mortgage Forum 2012 in Vancouver.  It’s a must read for everyone in the industry.  All the major media outlets have picked up the report and there’s been a significant amount of coverage based on the report.  One aspect of the report that bodes well for the industry, and should give regulators some degree of comfort, is how responsible Canadian borrowers are.  I found it striking that 32% of borrowers either increased their monthly payments or made principal reductions over the past 12 months.  It is estimated that $3.5 billion in additional monthly payments were made, and a further $20 billion in lump sum payments.  Yes, consumers are taking on more debt but they’re looking at paying off their debt sooner.  When stories are written about consumer debt levels, a word or two should be dedicated to how responsible Canadians are in attempting to eliminate their debt.

Here’s another indication that consumers maybe be smarter than the press give them credit for.  Over the past 12 months there’s been a high level of ARM conversions to 5 year fixed terms, and the product of choice today is 5 year fixed. Maybe, just maybe consumers are smart enough to know that now is not the time to gamble.  They’re looking at five year terms and saying the rate is competitive and it’s worth the peace of mind for the next five years.

As far as I’m concerned, the only stat that matters to our industry is the unemployment rate.  Everything else, where prime is going etc., is secondary.  Our industry, our entire economy will rise and fall with employment numbers.  It’s simple, if borrowers are working and they have access to cheap money, like they do now and will have for the next few years, there’s less reason to dump a property.  A home owner may not get the price they’re looking for but because the home is affordable there is less reason to discount the price.

If a home owner loses their job a completely different set of circumstances arise.  That’s why there’s reason for optimism over the most recent employment numbers.  According to Stat’s Canada, 59 thousand new jobs were created in November. On a year over year basis 294 thousand new jobs have been created, and hours worked have also increased.  These numbers are critical, not only to our industry but to our economy. Anytime we see a reduction in the employment rate it’s a reason for a high five or fist bump.  So turn around and give your work mate a fist bump because our unemployment rate has been reduced to 7.2%.

There’s more good news that will be readily available when the full Maritz survey becomes public in January, another must read.  But even if we only take into account the data available today there’s reason for optimism, and lessons to be learned.  For instance, consumers do not require regulators to legislate responsibility. Consumers are miles ahead on that one.

Until next time,

Cheers.

Even if it took an American movie production company, as well as actor/producer Ben Affleck, to remind us of Ken Taylor’s heroism then so be it. For those of you under the age of 35, Ken Taylor was a true hero. He never played in the NHL nor was a hip-hop artist. Ken Taylor was the Canadian Ambassador to Iran, and I was reminded of his bravery and courage while watching the movie Argo over the weekend. The movie is about six American diplomats who escaped from Iran during the American Embassy hostage crisis in 1979. For those of you old enough to remember the eyes of the world were focused on the crisis and everyone was stunned at the audacity that a super power embassy would be invaded. At the beginning of the crisis Canadian’s, along with the rest of the world, watched the events unfold, but the rest of the world would learn about a Canadian’s bravery and what it means to be an ally.

The Ken Taylor story is an extraordinary one. The movie Argo gives only glimpses of the role Ken Taylor played during the whole ordeal. It’s an American movie; therefore, the Americans have to be the heroes of the movie. No doubt that the CIA came up with an ingenious plot to get the six Americans diplomats out of Iran, and the story behind it was declassified in 1997, by the then President Bill Clinton. In the event you’re not familiar with the story, I won’t give it away, but it is right up there with anything that Clancy, Flynn or Ludlum could come up when writing a novel. Maybe not Ludlum because he’s been dead since 2001, and all his books released after 2001 have been written by ghost writers, most people don’t know that. I digress, no doubt the movie embellished certain aspects of the story for theatrical purposes but that’s Hollywood. Affleck’s movie had no choice but to highlight Ken Taylor and Canada’s willingness to support an ally. If the Iranian authorities had found out that Ken Taylor had supported the CIA efforts, the consequences would have been dire and a good chance those six American Diplomats would be dead today.

The only annoying part of the movie was right at the end of the credits. There was a voice over from Jimmy Carter, the President during the hostage crisis. He stated he really should get the credit but the real story could not be told so the Canadians had to get the credit. I understand Carter wanting to shape the narrative as it relates to his Presidency. His Presidency can be best described as an abject failure, and anything he can say to change historical perceptions works to his benefit. The real political hero here was former Canadian Prime Minister, Joe Clark. I had the pleasure of speaking to the former Prime Minister prior to last year’s CAAMP Mortgage Forum; what a humble and respectful man he his. Unlike Carter, Joe Clark never hungered for glory or credit for his role in getting the six American diplomats out of Iran. He did his job as a leader, and given that Canada has also declassified what happened he should be acknowledged for his courage. In a strange twist of fate the Iranian hostage crisis cost Carter his Presidency and indirectly led to the downfall of the Clark government. That in itself is a very interesting story.

Our role in the escape was a proud Canadian moment.  If you’re looking for something to do with yourself on a Saturday night, because hockey players and owners can’t figure out a way to divvy up $3.3 billion in revenue, you may want to take in the movie Argo.  For those of us old enough to remember, it’s a good reminder.  For those too young to really know, you’ll learn something while being entertained

Until next time,

Cheers.

Ontario, Yours to Discover ….A catchy phrase on all Ontario licensee plates but if the whispers are correct the rest of Canada may discover what Ontario style politics is all about. By now you may have heard that the Premier of Ontario, Dalton McGuinty, tendered his resignation. According to Daddy Dalton, “After 16 years as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, and after nine years as premier, it’s time for renewal. It’s time for the next Liberal premier, it’s time for the next set of Liberal ideas to guide our province forward”.

The resignation comes as a surprise and it’s especially intriguing given the Premiers ability to brush aside scandal after scandal, most recently the ambulance service and he’s also facing a second contempt motion for canceling two gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars to taxpayers. Tax dollars flushed away has never bothered the Teflon Premier before so why now? Can it be because he and his party were responsible for record deficits in Ontario? No, that can’t be it. If you can get re-elected three times promising not to raise taxes and you raise them anyway, what’s to fear?

The answer appears to be nothing. It’s being reported McGuinty is planning to throw his hat into the ring for the leadership of the Federal Liberal Party. The Federal Liberals have been looking for an answer to the well oiled Conservative machine. The Conservatives and Liberals know when it comes to Ontario, also comes a majority government. Justin Trudeau may have celebrity status but is that enough to convince the voters of Ontario? Clearly McGuinty’s inner circle doesn’t believe so.

McGuinty is a savvy and shrewd politician. As much as I think the rest of Canada would reject his record, I thought Ontario voters would see the same light.  You have to tip your hat to him. Not for his record but for his ability to survive and overcoming what most politicians would view as insurmountable odds. His act may be coming to the national stage, and as voters in Ontario have learned, his “ah shucks – golly gee act” can be rather effective.

Until next time,

Cheers.

Related Posts:

Ontario Tax Payers Beware

Federal Budget – A penny for your thoughts

Political Uncertainty in Ontario

One doesn’t have to be an expert in the real estate market to grasp that there’s something different in the market today.  Call it what you will, a sense, intuition or just plain old gut feel but there’s little doubt that things are changing.  The only question that remains is the degree of change?

Here are the facts as we know it:

• Home sales have dropped month over month by 5.8%, which is the biggest monthly drop in two years
• Number of newly listed homes is down 1.7% month over month
• Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board states that re-sales were down 30.7% as compared to August 2011.
• Toronto Real Estate Board states re-sales were down 12.5% as compared to August 2011
• According to the August 2012 CMHC quarterly report, second quarter insured mortgages unit volumes were down 25%

Indeed, things are different today.  The data speaks for itself, and the debate today has been reduced to correction versus bust.  I think it is far too early to come to come to any final conclusion but that will not stop stakeholders and the press from jumping into the debate. This issue is way too sexy to resist, and there’s a lot on the line for our economy and policy makers.  I came across an interesting quote from Wayne Moen, President of CREA., “August’s sales figures will no doubt provide comfort to policymakers, providing the first clear indication that the recent changes to mortgage regulations aimed at cooling the market are working as intended”. Very eloquent but policymakers may find the end result as comfortable a slipping into a pair of size 34 jeans, when you’re a size 38!  Policymakers insisted the most recent changes to mortgage rules targeted the tail end of the credit curve; therefore, the overall impact to the market would be marginal.   Nothing about the statistics indicates marginal, and I suspect home owners in Vancouver and those in the mortgage industry would agree.

 Look for the Vancouver market place to garner special attention in the coming months.   As an example, “the housing market correction appears to be under way, driven by the sharp downturn in Vancouver”, according to TD’s Chief Economist, Craig Alexander.  He went on to say, “we expect the slowdown will become broader based following a fourth round of mortgage insurance regulation tightening by the federal government”.  The way I interpret this is what goes for Vancouver, also goes for the entire country.  And then there’s the obvious, if it all goes bad, you know who to blame. 

Until next time,

Cheers.

Leave it to bureaucrats to come up with an acronym which acts as camouflage for the truth.  QE3, Quantitative Easing Part Three, is code for bail-out.  Politicians and bureaucrats are loath to use that term for fear of negative press and political ramifications.  If it looks like a duck, and it quacks like one, it’s a duck!  US Federal Reserve Charmin, Ben Bernanke, announced a couple of weeks ago that the Fed would inject $40 billion a month through purchases of mortgage back securities.  This move by the Fed is viewed as being dramatic in that it is a two pronged approach.  Firstly, there’s no defined time limit and they will not deviate from this policy until they succeed.  What does Fed deem to be success?  Full employment.

Rarely has the Fed exercised its authority and flexed its muscles in a such a manner.  This is a sign that the Fed has little confidence that the Whitehouse, Congress and Senate, will put their bickering and their campaign posturing aside to do what’s right.  This move has put Bernanke into the Republican crosshairs, we can use that reference in Canada because we Canadians wouldn’t take that term literally.  Being so close to the US presidential election, it’s odd that the Fed would make this move now.  Say what you will about Bernanke, he’s injected himself into this political campaign.  I believe his motivation was not political but of necessity.  Managing the economy has not been president Obama’s stronger suite, and the Republicans wouldn’t agree to anything today that Dem’s might suggest.  Fixing the US economy has been put on hold for over a year now because of the length and nature of  presidential campaigning.  Maybe Bernanke was willing to roll the dice because he has nothing to lose.   His tern as Chair expires in 2014.  The Republicans are questioning the need for a Federal Reserve Chairman, and maybe Bernanke has already decided that if asked he will not accept reappointment.  If he does step aside it would be a challenge for whoever replaces him as Chair, given no defined end date for QE3.  It is always easier to make bold decisions about the future knowing that you may not be subject to the consequences of that decision in the future.

The reverberations of QE3 will be felt here in Canada.  Bernanke has stated that the Fed is committed to leaving its target interest rate close to zero until 2015.  A few short months ago the prediction for a rate increase was 2014.  Clearly the Fed believes interest rates are too high in the US to encourage investment and mortgage borrowing.  I am not sure how enamored the Bank of Canada is with this decision.  Up until now the Bank of Canada has been in lock step with the US Fed.  Will they deviate from that?  I highly doubt it.  So, an overnight lending rate increase may have been pushed out for another 12 months in Canada.  That’s good news for consumers, especially for borrowers renewing their mortgages over the next 24 months.  The not so good news is that if you’re a first time home buyer, don’t expect the government to reverse the most recent changes to mortgage rules anytime soon. 

Until next time

Cheers