“Maintaining the status quo for America is not an option for the global economy, more specifically for Canada.”

Now that Americans have decided to maintain the status quo, high unemployment rates, mounting debt, failing economy and political gridlock, the only question remains – How does the election result impact Canada?  Unfortunately the American Presidential election is not something we can simply dismiss by saying “it’s their business, not ours”; our business is impacted by who and what party America elects.

In Canada, the Harper government did what it was supposed to do, they, stayed out of it and keep their opinions to themselves. Not easy to do considering how intertwined our economies are but we’re the junior partner in this relationship and we have to tread lightly.  It didn’t take long for both Prime Minister Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to issue statements that maintaining the status quo for America is not an option for the global economy, more specifically for Canada.  Here’s how Prime Minister sugarcoated it, “The U.S. has taken many aggressive and ambitious measures on its financial system but we’re now facing the fiscal cliff situation in the American political system in the next couple of months. That’s a big uncertainty.”  Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was more direct, “Of course we’re worried because it would mean — were the entire fiscal cliff risk to come to reality, there would be the effect on U.S. GDP — according to the Americans themselves — would be four to five per cent, which would put the U.S. economy into recession quite quickly, and the Canadian economy would follow shortly thereafter, and would have significant effect on the global economy.  So this is all very serious, and we hope our American colleagues move forward to a resolution promptly.” No ambiguity there.  The stakes are high and it’s hard to imagine that both Democrats and Republicans would be willing to drag their economy, and subsequently ours, into another recession for ideological reasons. Then again I wouldn’t bet on them doing the right thing for the greater good either.

Obama’s reelection probably means that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stays on the job when his term expires.  The Republicans made it very clear they were displeased with Bernanke, and the role that the Treasury plays as it relates to monetary policy.  Bernanke willingly or unwillingly helped Obama out during the campaign with the introduction of QE3, quantitative easing, which helped to boost economic data over the last two months of the campaign.  If Bernanke stays on the job we can expect rates to stay at historical lows until Q3 of 2014.  As I’ve stated before, if you want some indication as to where rates are going in Canada, see what the Fed Chairman is doing.

So, our government is concerned about the fiscal mess the Americans are in, rates are not going up in the mid-term,  no indication if Obama is going to change his position on the Keystone Pipeline, looks like not much has changed.  For our sake let’s hope the President is willing to move to the center and work with Republicans on the “Bush” tax cuts and budget.  The pragmatist in me believes it may happen given the President doesn’t have to pander to his base anymore; he’s never running for office again. The pessimist in me takes over when I consider the President has never made an attempt to move to the center, even after the Democrats lost their majority in Congress in 2010.  That should be worrisome for all of us because we all have skin in this deal.

Until next time,

Cheers.

So… we’ll have to depend on the global economy to make up for the negative impact that a slowing Canadian real estate market will have on our economy?

Where are they hiding?  They weren’t bashful about sharing their opinion when they were telling the Government to cool down the real estate sector.  The real estate industry was the apple of every headline seeking expert’s eye.  Government must act now…our economy is at risk…for the love of all things holy please save mankind from the evils of real estate.  Funny watching the outcome – the government acted, the market dropped by 15 per cent and now those who demanded government action are now all of sudden too busy to comment.

There was a good article written by Michael Babad in the Globe yesterday titled “Careful What You Wish For”.  The article refers to a new report from Avery Shenfeld, Chief Economist for CIBC.  I won’t regurgitate the facts but the gist of the article is that slowing down the real estate sector could end up having a far reaching impact on the Canadian economy.  Pleads from the minority, like CAAMP, cautioning the government not to over reach for fear of exactly what CIBC is now saying maybe should have been heeded.  Here’s a quote I found interesting from CIBC’s report, “In 2013 an economic acceleration looks unlikely absent a new source of growth to fill in housing’s gap. That makes it even more urgent that the global economy is healthier come 2014, when the full bite of a housing slump on domestic activity will be felt. Until that’s a sure bet, policy makers will be cautious about pouring more cold water on the housing sector through further changes in mortgage insurance or higher interest rates.”  So we’ll have to depend on the global economy to make up for the negative impact that a slowing Canadian real estate market will have on our economy?  But we should all take solace in the fact that Shenfeld doesn’t believe the government will do anything to slow down the market further.  I wonder what the magic number is? A 15 per cent drop is acceptable but 20 per cent or greater is unacceptable?

Seeing how we’re going to have to depend on the global economy to make up for the slowing real estate market we had all better keep on eye what’s happening in other parts of the world.  Not sure if we should feel warm and fuzzy depending on Greece, Italy, Spain, China and the U.S.  The Fed’s were in a tough spot and there’s no way they could predict, with one hundred per cent accuracy, the exact level of the slowdown.  But in less than three months of the most recent changes to the mortgage rules there are signs they may have over reached; if that proves true there could be repercussions for the Fed’s, like contributing to Justin Trudeau mania.

Related Posts:

BOC Leaves Target Rate “As Is”

Canada Housing: Correction vs. Bust – Let the Finger Pointing begin

Bank of Canada still locked with the US Fed?

Real Estate & Mortgage Industry: The Margin Battle

Until next time,

Cheers.

Even if it took an American movie production company, as well as actor/producer Ben Affleck, to remind us of Ken Taylor’s heroism then so be it. For those of you under the age of 35, Ken Taylor was a true hero. He never played in the NHL nor was a hip-hop artist. Ken Taylor was the Canadian Ambassador to Iran, and I was reminded of his bravery and courage while watching the movie Argo over the weekend. The movie is about six American diplomats who escaped from Iran during the American Embassy hostage crisis in 1979. For those of you old enough to remember the eyes of the world were focused on the crisis and everyone was stunned at the audacity that a super power embassy would be invaded. At the beginning of the crisis Canadian’s, along with the rest of the world, watched the events unfold, but the rest of the world would learn about a Canadian’s bravery and what it means to be an ally.

The Ken Taylor story is an extraordinary one. The movie Argo gives only glimpses of the role Ken Taylor played during the whole ordeal. It’s an American movie; therefore, the Americans have to be the heroes of the movie. No doubt that the CIA came up with an ingenious plot to get the six Americans diplomats out of Iran, and the story behind it was declassified in 1997, by the then President Bill Clinton. In the event you’re not familiar with the story, I won’t give it away, but it is right up there with anything that Clancy, Flynn or Ludlum could come up when writing a novel. Maybe not Ludlum because he’s been dead since 2001, and all his books released after 2001 have been written by ghost writers, most people don’t know that. I digress, no doubt the movie embellished certain aspects of the story for theatrical purposes but that’s Hollywood. Affleck’s movie had no choice but to highlight Ken Taylor and Canada’s willingness to support an ally. If the Iranian authorities had found out that Ken Taylor had supported the CIA efforts, the consequences would have been dire and a good chance those six American Diplomats would be dead today.

The only annoying part of the movie was right at the end of the credits. There was a voice over from Jimmy Carter, the President during the hostage crisis. He stated he really should get the credit but the real story could not be told so the Canadians had to get the credit. I understand Carter wanting to shape the narrative as it relates to his Presidency. His Presidency can be best described as an abject failure, and anything he can say to change historical perceptions works to his benefit. The real political hero here was former Canadian Prime Minister, Joe Clark. I had the pleasure of speaking to the former Prime Minister prior to last year’s CAAMP Mortgage Forum; what a humble and respectful man he his. Unlike Carter, Joe Clark never hungered for glory or credit for his role in getting the six American diplomats out of Iran. He did his job as a leader, and given that Canada has also declassified what happened he should be acknowledged for his courage. In a strange twist of fate the Iranian hostage crisis cost Carter his Presidency and indirectly led to the downfall of the Clark government. That in itself is a very interesting story.

Our role in the escape was a proud Canadian moment.  If you’re looking for something to do with yourself on a Saturday night, because hockey players and owners can’t figure out a way to divvy up $3.3 billion in revenue, you may want to take in the movie Argo.  For those of us old enough to remember, it’s a good reminder.  For those too young to really know, you’ll learn something while being entertained

Until next time,

Cheers.

Ontario, Yours to Discover ….A catchy phrase on all Ontario licensee plates but if the whispers are correct the rest of Canada may discover what Ontario style politics is all about. By now you may have heard that the Premier of Ontario, Dalton McGuinty, tendered his resignation. According to Daddy Dalton, “After 16 years as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, and after nine years as premier, it’s time for renewal. It’s time for the next Liberal premier, it’s time for the next set of Liberal ideas to guide our province forward”.

The resignation comes as a surprise and it’s especially intriguing given the Premiers ability to brush aside scandal after scandal, most recently the ambulance service and he’s also facing a second contempt motion for canceling two gas plants in Mississauga and Oakville at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars to taxpayers. Tax dollars flushed away has never bothered the Teflon Premier before so why now? Can it be because he and his party were responsible for record deficits in Ontario? No, that can’t be it. If you can get re-elected three times promising not to raise taxes and you raise them anyway, what’s to fear?

The answer appears to be nothing. It’s being reported McGuinty is planning to throw his hat into the ring for the leadership of the Federal Liberal Party. The Federal Liberals have been looking for an answer to the well oiled Conservative machine. The Conservatives and Liberals know when it comes to Ontario, also comes a majority government. Justin Trudeau may have celebrity status but is that enough to convince the voters of Ontario? Clearly McGuinty’s inner circle doesn’t believe so.

McGuinty is a savvy and shrewd politician. As much as I think the rest of Canada would reject his record, I thought Ontario voters would see the same light.  You have to tip your hat to him. Not for his record but for his ability to survive and overcoming what most politicians would view as insurmountable odds. His act may be coming to the national stage, and as voters in Ontario have learned, his “ah shucks – golly gee act” can be rather effective.

Until next time,

Cheers.

Related Posts:

Ontario Tax Payers Beware

Federal Budget – A penny for your thoughts

Political Uncertainty in Ontario

How would you react?  You come to work in the morning and you notice that there is an email in your inbox from your CEO. Your initial reaction would probably be that the email is nothing more than some rah-rah correspondence, quarterly earning, aren’t we just great etc. But when you open the email you say to yourself, “whoa”.

I suspect this is the initial reaction for the 7000 employees employed at Westgate Resorts, after reading the email their CEO David Siegel sent to them. The email is getting a lot of play in the news for it’s boldness and political overtones. The email was a heartfelt message from the CEO; he said if you chose to vote for President Obama, and he’s reelected, I will be left with no choice but to cut staff. I’m paraphrasing but that’s the part of the email the media is focusing on. So how would you respond if received such an email from your CEO? Incredulous, furious, abuse of authority? My initial reaction was, “there’s got be more to this”. I believed that because I could never see myself writing such an email, attempting to directly influence how our staff should vote in a federal election. On the surface it is beyond comprehension but as is usually the case you shouldn’t pass judgement until you have all the facts. I read Mr. Siegel’s entire email and I was struck by his candor and honesty. He wrote about the sacrifices and challenges he’s faced building his company. He spoke about the dire economic straights his country faces and if things continue the way they are, and he’s forced to pay even more in taxes, it will have consequences for the entire company. He even referenced the fact that construction on his ninety thousand square foot home, that’s not a typo, had to be put on hold since the recession. I did say this was an honest and heartfelt email.

We can debate the right and wrong of the email. But after reading the entire email, the full text is below, you can’t debate the man’s courage. He had to know that some employee would forward the email to the media, and the heat would come because of it. I don’t believe this is case of, “I don’t care what you say about me just spell my name right”. I suspect Mr. Siegel’s ego is satisfied through other means. So why did he do it? There’s no doubt he loves his company, and by all appearances his country as well. It’s also clear that he’s tired of being demonized just because he’s successful. Leadership has many characteristics, courage of you convictions being one of them.

Until next time

Cheers.

Subject: Message from David Siegel

Date:Mon, 08 Oct 2012 13:58:05 -0400 (EDT)

From: [David Siegel]

To: [All employees]

To All My Valued Employees,

As most of you know our company, Westgate Resorts, has continued to succeed in spite of a very dismal economy. There is no question that the economy has changed for the worse and we have not seen any improvement over the past four years. In spite of all of the challenges we have faced, the good news is this: The economy doesn’t currently pose a threat to your job. What does threaten your job however, is another 4 years of the same Presidential administration. Of course, as your employer, I can’t tell you whom to vote for, and I certainly wouldn’t interfere with your right to vote for whomever you choose. In fact, I encourage you to vote for whomever you think will serve your interests the best.

However, let me share a few facts that might help you decide what is in your best interest.The current administration and members of the press have perpetuated an environment that casts employers against employees. They want you to believe that we live in a class system where the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. They label us the “1%” and imply that we are somehow immune to the challenges that face our country. This could not be further from the truth. Sure, you may have heard about the big home that I’m building. I’m sure many people think that I live a privileged life. However, what you don’t see or hear is the true story behind any success that I have achieved.

I started this company over 42 years ago. At that time, I lived in a very modest home. I converted my garage into an office so I could put forth 100% effort into building a company, which by the way, would eventually employ you. We didn’t eat in fancy restaurants or take expensive vacations because every dollar I made went back into this company. I drove an old used car, and often times, I stayed home on weekends, while my friends went out drinking and partying. In fact, I was married to my business — hard work, discipline, and sacrifice. Meanwhile, many of my friends got regular jobs. They worked 40 hours a week and made a nice income, and they spent every dime they earned. They drove flashy cars and lived in expensive homes and wore fancy designer clothes. My friends refinanced their mortgages and lived a life of luxury. I, however, did not. I put my time, my money, and my life into this business —-with a vision that eventually, some day, I too, will be able to afford to buy whatever I wanted. Even to this day, every dime I earn goes back into this company. Over the past four years I have had to stop building my dream house, cut back on all of my expenses, and take my kids out of private schools simply to keep this company strong and to keep you employed.

Just think about this – most of you arrive at work in the morning and leave that afternoon and the rest of your time is yours to do as you please. But not me- there is no “off” button for me. When you leave the office, you are done and you have a weekend all to yourself. I unfortunately do not have that freedom. I eat, live, and breathe this company every minute of the day, every day of the week. There is no rest. There is no weekend. There is no happy hour. I know many of you work hard and do a great job, but I’m the one who has to sign every check, pay every expense, and make sure that this company continues to succeed. Unfortunately, what most people see is the nice house and the lavish lifestyle. What the press certainly does not want you to see, is the true story of the hard work and sacrifices I’ve made.

Now, the economy is falling apart and people like me who made all the right decisions and invested in themselves are being forced to bail out all the people who didn’t. The people that overspent their paychecks suddenly feel entitled to the same luxuries that I earned and sacrificed 42 years of my life for. Yes, business ownership has its benefits, but the price I’ve paid is steep and not without wounds. Unfortunately, the costs of running a business have gotten out of control, and let me tell you why: We are being taxed to death and the government thinks we don’t pay enough. We pay state taxes, federal taxes, property taxes, sales and use taxes, payroll taxes, workers compensation taxes and unemployment taxes. I even have to hire an entire department to manage all these taxes. The question I have is this: Who is really stimulating the economy? Is it the Government that wants to take money from those who have earned it and give it to those who have not, or is it people like me who built a company out of his garage and directly employs over 7000 people and hosts over 3 million people per year with a great vacation?

Obviously, our present government believes that taking my money is the right economic stimulus for this country. The fact is, if I deducted 50% of your paycheck you’d quit and you wouldn’t work here. I mean, why should you? Who wants to get rewarded only 50% of their hard work? Well, that’s what happens to me.

Here is what most people don’t understand and the press and our Government has chosen to ignore – to stimulate the economy you need to stimulate what runs the economy. Instead of raising my taxes and depositing that money into the Washington black-hole, let me spend it on growing the company, hire more employees, and generate substantial economic growth. My employees will enjoy the wealth of that tax cut in the form of promotions and better salaries. But that is not what our current Government wants you to believe. They want you to believe that it somehow makes sense to take more from those who create wealth and give it to those who do not, and somehow our economy will improve. They don’t want you to know that the “1%”, as they like to label us, pay more than 31% of all the taxes in this country. Thomas Jefferson, the author of our great Constitution, once said, “democracy” will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not.”

Business is at the heart of America and always has been. To restart it, you must stimulate business, not kill it. However, the power brokers in Washington believe redistributing wealth is the essential driver of the American economic engine. Nothing could be further from the truth and this is the type of change they want.

So where am I going with all this? It’s quite simple. If any new taxes are levied on me, or my company, as our current President plans, I will have no choice but to reduce the size of this company. Rather than grow this company I will be forced to cut back. This means fewer jobs, less benefits and certainly less opportunity for everyone.

So, when you make your decision to vote, ask yourself, which candidate understands the economics of business ownership and who doesn’t? Whose policies will endanger your job?

Answer those questions and you should know who might be the one capable of protecting and saving your job. While the media wants to tell you to believe the “1 percenters” are bad, I’m telling you they are not. They create most of the jobs. If you lose your job, it won’t be at the hands of the “1%”; it will be at the hands of a political hurricane that swept through this country.

You see, I can no longer support a system that penalizes the productive and gives to the unproductive. My motivation to work and to provide jobs will be destroyed, and with it, so will your opportunities. If that happens, you can find me in the Caribbean sitting on the beach, under a palm tree, retired, and with no employees to worry about.