“Euphoria and disappointment are emotions that will eventually fade, but memories last a lifetime.”

It must be a part of my genetic makeup, but I just hate to lose, pretty much at anything.   I’ve always been that way, and because I’m wired that way – it’ll never change.  What changes with age is perspective, and understanding that defeat does not have to be undignified. For me it’s no longer emotion first, think second.  Unfortunately for me, to get this stage it took a lot of years, and I mean a lot of years, as well as some sound advice along the way.  As an example, a few years ago I was playing a round of golf, a game that has tortured me for years, I was madder than hell at this one round.  During the round I decided not to suffer silently. I shared my feelings with my playing partners in the most colorful manner – I was in fine form.  I guess one of my playing partners had heard enough, and he decided it was time to give me a reality check.  He was wonderful golfer, so when he walked up to me and said “I have some advice for you”, I was all ears.  He put his hand on my shoulder and said, “You’re not good enough at this game to get mad, so just enjoy the day”.  After the round I reflected on what my playing partner said to me, and I came to the conclusion he was absolutely right.  Now when I play golf, and the demons start to creep in, I remind myself it beats the alternative.

My ability to put things into perspective was put to the test yesterday.  It started with the Liberals being re-elected, even though the party has been riddled with scandal, currently under two separate OPP criminal investigations, and a well-documented disregard for the public coffers, the Liberals were reelected.  The voters have spoken, the voters are always right, and the people of Ontario will get what the so justly deserve.  

My second brush with perspective had to do with something far more important than the results of the Ontario provincial elections, the opening game of the World Cup.  The game of soccer was introduced to me by my father.  I still remember as an eight year old, my father taking me to my fist soccer game when we went on a family vacation, in what was then Yugoslavia.  The game took place in Split, Croatia.  The local team, Hajduk, played Red Star, from Belgrade, Serbia.  As an eight year old I knew nothing of politics, and what was causing the underlining tension in the stadium.  But I could decipher the atmosphere, the vibe, and the mood in the stadium was almost palpable.  At that point in my life I had never been in a stadium with a crowd of that size.  I was mesmerized, and from that moment on, I was hooked on the game.  My parents are proud Canadians, but they ensured I had a connection to my ancestry.  It’s for that reason my juices get flowing when the Croatian national soccer team plays in major tournaments.  The opening match of the 2014 World Cup was Brazil versus Croatia.  Being a fan of the game I was under no illusions.  Mighty Brazil against a country with a population of 4.5 million, it was a re-enactment of David versus Goliath. Much to my surprise Croatia took the lead, but it was in the middle of the second half of play I had to put things into perspective. Brazil is a glamor team, they spent far too much money to host the tournament not make an easy passage into the second round, Brazil means high TV ratings, there was no way they were going to lose.  It mattered little that the officiating during the game would lead one to question the integrity of the game. Commerce trumps all in soccer. That’s just the way it is. Brazil 3 Croatia 1.

Perspective allows me to put the results of yesterday’s game aside, and focus more on the journey and experience I’m about to undertake.  On Monday, my father and I leave for Brazil, to watch Croatia play against Cameroon and Mexico.  I would love to be able to celebrate a couple of victories with my father.  But if that’s not to be…that’s okay.  Euphoria or disappointment will eventually fade, but memories stay with you for a lifetime.

Until next time,

Cheers.

Is the glass half full or half empty?  Are the measures that we’re taken to modify the real estate market balanced or have policy makers over reached?  Numbers are supposed to be black and white.  Shades of grey come into play depending on the side of the argument you’re on.

The Canadian Real Estate Association, (CREA) released data this week which will make all sides of the Canadian real estate market argument happy.  Example, according to the MLS Home Price Index, home prices have increased by 7.6% from a year ago.  Now if you take Vancouver and Toronto out of the equation, the increase was 4.6% on a year over year basis.  So are we on the cusp of a potential real estate bubble or is it simple supply side economics?  The number of homes sold came in slightly lower than a year ago.  So is demand outpacing supply, causing prices to increase?  And oh my god, condo sales increased in Toronto as well. Red Rover, Red Rover, Doom Sayers come on over.  There’s a little something for everyone. The teeth nashers and those predicting Armageddon are fist bumping each other.  Others, justifiably so, are saying it’s a balanced market.  Should the price of a real estate never rise? If that we’re the case we would all be squatters, living in tents.  The commentators I love are the ones that sit firmly on the fence.  An economist for one major bank said their analysis suggests that we all experience a 10% decrease in home values, and there could be further risk if sales activity was to increase. They were so concerned with the “risk” that they matched the 2.99% five year rate that one of their competitors came out with.  That fence post must really be uncomfortable to sit on.

Sifting through all the commentary can be confusing, and let’s be honest, depending on the amount of skin you have in the game will influence the argument and opinion you support.  To combat human nature it’s important to seek contrary opinions, and I force myself do that, almost daily.  It takes some effort to find commentary which is not self-serving, like those selling newspapers, hedge funds that are shorting the Canadian economy or politicians playing politics.  Here’s a couple names to look out for when you want broader viewpoint, economists Nouriel Roubini and David Rosenberg.  What’s their bona fide? They predicted the financial collapse of 2008. So what are they saying today?  According to Rosenberg, “Nattering nabobs of negativity – stop knocking yourself out. First, there are a host of reasons why I see inflation rising moderately, and the wage process is but one of them. There is a very interesting development taking place that is not garnering a lot of attention. The U.S. commercial banks are loosening their purse strings. As for the U.S. economy, it is looking as though Q2 real GDP growth will come in close to a 4% annual rate. Why I turned bullish on the U.S. consumer.”  Clearly he’s refereeing to the U.S. Economy, but like it or not, when America sneezes we look for a tissue.  In good times and bad.

Until next time!

Cheers,

Well, it certainly feels that way.  The deadline to file with Ottawa is Monday, and if it slipped your mind, go directly to the sin bin and hold your head down in shame.  Oh yeah, you should prepared to pay more in penalties if you’re late.  If you’re hoping the CRA (Canada Revenue Agency) won’t notice if you’ve filed or not, trust me, they’ll notice.   May 5^th is the day for you to make good with the government.  If you feel this strange sensation of a number in hands in your pocket, it’s real.  Here in Toronto, we all feel like we’ve been groped this week.

A report was released this week about the impact to the Toronto economy due to implementation of the municipal land transfer tax.  For those of you not aware, real estate purchases in Toronto are subjected to a Provincial Land Transfer Tax, as well as a municipal land transfer tax.  The net result is that anyone buying a home in Toronto, will pay the highest land transfer tax in the country.  A study was commissioned by the Ontario Real Estate Association, and the findings are interesting.  According to the report, if the municipal land transfer tax was eliminated, Toronto could see a $2 billion boost to the local economy, and possibly create 12,000 new jobs.  The municipal land transfer tax came into effect in 2008, remember what happened to the global economy 2008?, and our elected officials at that time thought it would be wise to implement  further financial burden on home buyers.  The new study suggests that the city of Toronto has experienced a decline of 38,000 home sales due to the implementation of the municipal land transfer tax, and a $1.2 billion reduction in GDP.  Of course critics of the study say that the report is self-serving because it was commissioned by the Ontario Real Estate Association.  Okay, let’s assume there was some embellishment, and we cut the number in half.  A $1 billion dollar boost to the economy, and 6,000 new jobs created is not trivial or throw away numbers.  The focus should be on the message, and not the messenger.  If you’re of the mind that this is just a Toronto problem, and too bad for them, you may want to rethink that.  Do you think your municipal politicians will be able to resist the urge to go to the real estate trough and impose their own municipal land transfer tax?  If there’s no real backlash by voters in Toronto, and the municipal land transfer tax just slowly becomes the cost of doing business, why shouldn’t your municipal council get some?   If you think it could never happen, I admire your blind faith.  Speaking of faith, I have zero in our current mayor.  It’s not because of the crack smoking, drunken stupors and all round buffoonery.  Who amongst us hasn’t sinned?  I can forgive, but what I can’t forgive is that our rehabbing mayor promised to do away with the municipal land transfer tax, and he lied. Hey, it’s one thing to lie about smoking crack, but when you promised that we could keep more of hard earned money, and you lie, now you’ve gone too far.  Unlike the mayor, the vast majority of Torontonians would invest the extra money in our children’s education, home renovations, vacations and maybe something really outrageous, like increasing their down payment on a home purchase. 

 In fairness to our esteemed municipal politicians, the ability to impose the municipal land transfer tax was granted by the Provincial Liberal’s magic wand.  Granting permission is in keeping with their modus operandi.  Like the new Provincial budget they tabled this week.  The numbers are mind-boggling, and there’s no point getting into the details because it will probably never pass, and the voters in Ontario will be heading to the polls again.  However, the budget does give us a glimpse of the Liberal’s campaign platform.  If they’re looking for a campaign slogan, I can simplify it for them. “Vote Liberal, we’ll spend and tax more”.  It’s kind of catchy.  If you’re bored this weekend, and you feel like doing a slow burn, click on the link to the Fraser Institute Personal Tax Freedom Day Calculator.  It calculates when you stop working for the government, and you start keeping your hard earned dollars.  For all of in Canada, it’s sometime in June, your personal income and the province you reside in determines the actual day.  Wait, there’s one exception, Alberta.  Albertan’s personal tax freedom day falls in May.  I love Alberta, and I have thou$ands of reasons why.

Until Next Time,

 Cheers.

I think most of we’re shocked and surprised to hear about the passing of former Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty.  There was speculation he decided to leave the Finance Department for health reasons, he was afflicted by a rare skin disease.  He denied the claims, and simply said that it was time to pursue opportunities in the private sector.  Today, his reason for leaving and stepping aside is moot, and it’s sad he didn’t have an opportunity to share moments with his family, when they were so close to getting him back.

I think it’s safe to say the late Jim Flaherty made many sacrifices.  Being Finance Minister is not a part-time job.  When you’re responsible for managing the country’s economy and budget, you can probably say goodbye to the nine to five work days.  His efforts and dedication to public service will shape his legacy.  We can quibble about all the changes to mortgage rules under his stewardship, but I think we are all better off today because of his steady hand while steering us through the global financial crisis.  In the grand scheme of things our economy bounced back rather smoothly after 2008; Canada was able to avoid much of the pain other economies endured.  That did not happen by accident. 

 I had the opportunity to meet with Mr. Flaherty on a number of occasions.  I always found him to be engaging and attentive.  He reached out to many business sectors because he wanted to hear firsthand what the needs of the day were. He reached out to our industry and learned the importance of the mortgage broker industry.  He took the time to meet with stakeholders in our industry when it would have been easy for him to say no need, I know better.  He allowed our voice to be heard, and he appreciated the contribution we make to home ownership in Canada.  His approach was a first for our industry, and for that we should all be grateful.  I know I am.

 God speed.

Well, it sure as hell feels like that.  Canadians are known for their climate infatuation, and we spend a great deal of time talking about the weather.  “Is it hot/cold enough for you” etc.  Somehow, some way…it always gets back to the weather.

But this year, even the most pragmatic among us, those people who are always reminding you that extreme weather conditions are a part of living in this country, are spending time trying to book a vacation and escape.  It seems that everyone I talk to is suffering from winter fatigue, and looking for a respite.

I was talking to my travel agent this week and she indicated that she’s swamped.  With every new blast of sub-zero temperatures, with predictions of yet another snow storm, her phone ends up ringing off to hook because people want out.  It will be interesting to see the stats provided by the tourist bureaus in California, Arizona and Florida with respect to Canadians vacationing in their states this year.  Throw in Mexico and the Caribbean, and I would be willing to wager there’s a significant spike this year of Canadians looking for relief in warmer climates. This winter has been been brutal!

It’s March break in Ontario, and like thousands of others, we got out of Dodge for the week and headed to Florida.  Even with all its quirks and peculiarities, Florida is a great place to visit.  Sunshine, warmth, and all the amenities of home. What’s not to like?  Okay, so their beer is nothing more than flavored water, but it’s an easy hardship to put up with. If it comes down to shoveling the driveway, scraping ice of the car windshield, putting on twelve layers of clothing to go out and get a coffee, I’ll gladly inhale another American Coors Light…it’s refreshing and yummy.

Hopefully we’re in the last stages of the winter from hell. That’s a bit of oxymoron. If you’ve had the chance to get away,  good.  If you haven’t, what are you waiting for?  One final note, for all those who live in Ontario, and complain about the heat and humidity in the summer, remember: February is just around the corner.

Until next time

Cheers